A License to Act Surprised

Did you hear the news in the past two days? The Associated Press reports, "Home resales dipped unexpectedly last month. [...] Sales [...] had been expected to rise to [...], according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters." Another news comes today, "Orders for durable goods like aircraft and electronics fell unexpectedly in August." In both quotes italics are mine. We all remember how surprised Alan Greenspan was with the meltdown of the financial system which collapsed under the weight of the bad loans and creative financial schemes allowed under his watch. Until two years ago, I thought that a meteorologist was the best job in the world - putting your smartest face on, you can predict whatever (like more hurricanes this year), then act surprised when your forecast does not come true, then go an still collect your salary. I mean, a psychic is another one of those, but it usually does not come with a clout of knowledge and education - you are sort of expected to be a crook, like a politician, really. I now realize that an economist is one more specialty where you can draw a salary and be mistaken with impunity. Come to think about it, a stock broker in yet another one...

Wow! This should be a major counseling advice to give to our youth choosing their majors in colleges. I would say, "Kid, if you want to be paid no matter if what you do and say is right or wrong, you have a wide choice of specialties to choose from!" And then give them the list which I would call "The List of Majors with a License to Act Surprised."

In reality, though, you did not have to be a rocket scientist or pretend you know anything about anything, you could have just used some common sense. If people are continuing to lose jobs, there is no economic recovery possible regardless of how much you inflate the stock market bubble and how many times you repeat the mantra that the crisis is over. If people are not getting paid, they will be buying less stuff, which will eventually translate into lower orders for all sorts of goods, including durables. If people either don't have jobs, or have a low job security, plus the credit markets get a lot tighter, there will be no revival of the housing market. To EXPECT anything otherwise, and then to ACT SURPRISED is sheer incompetence. I wonder if those same economic "analysts" would be understanding if they took their ailing Mother to see a doctor, the doctor gave her the wrong diagnosis, and then acted surprised when the Mother died. Behavior like this somehow doesn't quite make the cut in medicine.